The T20 World Cup continues to deliver as Afghanistan stunned the cricketing world on Saturday (Jun 22) by beating Australia to throw open Group 1 of the Super 8 stage. With India and Bangladesh in the group as well, the fate of the teams qualifying for the semifinals will only be decided after the final round of matches.

Here we take a look at the different permutations and combinations that could decide the fate of two qualifying teams.

If India wins

India currently sit top of the points table with two wins and a healthy run rate of +2.425. They square up against Australia in the final match of the stage and a win would ensure a definite place in the top-4. A loss would not mean the end of the world either, provided the Men-in-Blue don’t lose by a big margin. 

If Australia and Afghanistan win

In case, Australia floor India and Afghanistan follow suit by beating Bangladesh, three teams will finish on four points and the Net Run Rate (NRR) will come into play. 

If defending the total, Australia win by a margin of a solitary run, Afghanistan will need a 36-run margin to move ahead of the Down Under side on NRR. 

If Australia win a run-chase off the last ball, Afghanistan will have to win their game in 15.4 overs or sooner (assuming first-innings scores of 160).

Can India be knocked out?

While it looks unlikely, there is a scenario where India can be knocked out of the tournament despite winning two matches. If both Australia and Afghanistan win their matches by big margins, India may have to book a returning ticket. 

Math dictates that Australia will need to overcome India by 41 runs to go past their NRR while Afghanistan will have to subdue Bangladesh by at least 83 runs. 

What about Bangladesh?

The Bangla Tigers have a tall mountain to climb, especially given their inconsistent form in the tournament. The team will need to win by 31 runs to leapfrog Afghanistan’s NRR, but they will also need India to annihilate Australia by at least 55 runs, to finish second in the group.

The final round of matches in Group 1 will be played on Monday (Jun 24) with India vs Australia taking place early in the day at the Daren Sammy Cricket Ground in Gros Islet, Saint Lucia. Meanwhile, Afghanistan will face Bangladesh at the Arnos Vale Stadium in Kingstown. 

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